03979cam a22003498i 45000010005000000030009000050050017000140080041000310100017000720200029000890200015001180350021001330400033001540410008001870500023001950820022002180840023002401000020002632450122002832500019004052630009004243000014004334900052004475040053004995051051005525201707016035260007033106500042033176500063033598560095034228560112035177364BD-DhEWU20140605020005.0140205s2014 flu g b 001 0 eng d a 2013039507 a9781439840955 (hardback) a1439840954 a(OCoLC)859253474 aDLCbengcDLCerdadBD-DhEWU aeng00aQA279.5b.G45 201400a519.542bBAY 2014 aMAT0290002bisacsh1 aGelman, Andrew,10aBayesian data analysis /cAndrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, David B. Dunson, Aki Vehtari, Donald B. Rubin. aThird edition. a1111 apages cm.0 aChapman & Hall/CRC texts in statistical science aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. tTOCa FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE Probability and Inference Single-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian Approaches Hierarchical Models FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS Model Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding Models Modeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision Analysis ADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional Approximations REGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear Models Generalized Linear Models Models for Robust Inference Models for Missing Data NONLINEAR AND NONPARAMETRIC MODELS Parametric Nonlinear Models Basic Function Models Gaussian Process Models Finite Mixture Models Dirichlet Process Models APPENDICES A: Standard Probability Distributions B: Outline of Proofs of Asymptotic Theorems C: Computation in R and Stan Bibliographic Notes and Exercises appear at the end of each chapter. a"Preface This book is intended to have three roles and to serve three associated audiences: an introductory text on Bayesian inference starting from first principles, a graduate text on effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields, and a handbook of Bayesian methods in applied statistics for general users of and researchers in applied statistics. Although introductory in its early sections, the book is definitely not elementary in the sense of a first text in statistics. The mathematics used in our book is basic probability and statistics, elementary calculus, and linear algebra. A review of probability notation is given in Chapter 1 along with a more detailed list of topics assumed to have been studied. The practical orientation of the book means that the reader's previous experience in probability, statistics, and linear algebra should ideally have included strong computational components. To write an introductory text alone would leave many readers with only a taste of the conceptual elements but no guidance for venturing into genuine practical applications, beyond those where Bayesian methods agree essentially with standard non-Bayesian analyses. On the other hand, we feel it would be a mistake to present the advanced methods without first introducing the basic concepts from our data-analytic perspective. Furthermore, due to the nature of applied statistics, a text on current Bayesian methodology would be incomplete without a variety of worked examples drawn from real applications. To avoid cluttering the main narrative, there are bibliographic notes at the end of each chapter and references at the end of the book"-- aAS 0aBayesian statistical decision theory. 7aMATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General.2bisacsh423Cover imageuhttp://images.tandf.co.uk/common/jackets/websmall/978143984/9781439840955.jpg423WorldCat Detailsuhttp://www.worldcat.org/title/bayesian-data-analysis/oclc/859253474&referer=brief_results